???????? Hi friends!
And I’m finally back on home turf having landed back in the UK earlier today. I won’t spend another moment dwelling on how amazing the trip was in case I get lynched the next time one of you sees me on the street – but one last cherry to top off the whole experience was being bumped to business class on our flight from Abu Dhabi to London last night.
Let’s put it this way, without that level of (unexpected) comfort, I doubt I would be in any shape to have gotten this edition out!
Here’s to some amazing memories under the sun 🙂
Just me and a tree by the sea
In this weeks Off Balance, I’ll be chatting about:
⌛️ Office hours with Aarish and 45 lessons learned over 45 years
???? The importance of the modern day CFO in tech
☯️ Getting away from black and white thinking
Check out this weeks Primer where I get to know Nathaniel Harding who went from building in the oil and gas industry to raising Oklahoma’s largest VC fund at Cortado Ventures, serving the less explored mid continent ????
Also, if you have any feedback, or if there’s something you’re desperate to see me include, just reply to this mail or ping me online – I’m very open to conversations.
If you like what I’m putting out, do give me a follow on LinkedIn, Twitter and Instagram.
(If you are trying to connect with me on LinkedIn, maybe read this post I wrote and make sure to start your request with “Off Balance” and, more importantly, tell me why you’d like to connect ????????)
Don’t forget to like, rate and subscribe to Nothing Ventured on Apple, Spotify or YouTube, it really helps more people see what we’re doing – you can find links to these (and more including my Office Hours) right here!
Now let’s get into it.
This edition of Nothing Ventured is brought to you by EmergeOne.
EmergeOne provides fractional CFO support to venture backed tech startups from Seed to Series B and beyond.
Join companies backed by Hoxton, Stride, Octopus, Founders Factory, Outlier, a16z and more, who trust us to help them get the most out of their capital, streamline financials, and manage investor relations so they can focus on scaling.
If you’re a CFO working with venture backed startups and want to join a team of incredible fractional talent, drop us your details here.
If you’re a growing startup that knows it needs that strategic financial knowhow, drop your details here to see how we can support you as you scale ????
How can did I add value?
Well having been away for over two weeks, I’ve been focussed on me internally more than I have on external factors but, one of the questions that came up in a chat with some of my CFOs was what would be the ideal corporate structure to scale what I’m building at EmergeOne.
Now this is a pretty big topic so I’ll cover corporate structures and when and why they’re the right choice in a given situation in a separate fuller Off Balance episode because it’s clearly a question that is not always clear cut to everyone.
In the meantime, here are 8 thoughts from 8 days in the Maldives that could only really come from having the time for a bit of introspection – which I fortunately had plenty of time for especially when it decided to rain heavily.
Always verify, don’t believe marketing brochures.
We booked another resort initially, excited by the offer. Was tired, old and barely 3*.
Should have researched more.
You can work when you’re on holiday, but you can’t holiday if you’re working.
I am the only person running my 7 figure business. I’d be anxious if I didn’t check my mails sporadically. But don’t bother with holidays if you’re spending all your time working.
Just because it’s all inclusive, doesn’t mean you have to include it all.
You shouldn’t feel the pressure to take advantage of everything on offer. Do what works for you, or do nothing. It’s your time.
Don’t pile your plate high, moderation leads to more enjoyment.
I find it quite depressing seeing folk taking things to excess. There is gratification in scarcity. Learning how to have a scarce mindset helps you to enjoy things more.
You never know when it’s going to rain, so enjoy the sun whilst it’s out.
Don’t put things off. Circumstances will always change. Take advantage today, don’t wait for tomorrow cos it never comes.
Touch the land lightly, don’t leave a mark.
Whatever you’re doing in life, it pays to tread lightly and leave the world a better place. If you want to leave a mark, leave it in peoples’ minds.
Find enjoyment in the things you wouldn’t normally do.
Exercise your body and your brain, get used to doing different things. It’ll only help you to get better at the things you normally do as a result.
Live each moment fully, you’re always a minute closer to leaving.
Sadly, time is both the opportunity and the enemy. Don’t leave with regrets. Ever.
Created using DreamStudio
Off Balance
Last week we started exploring financial modelling and, I thought I’d be able to cover off the balance of what I had to say in one more post today.
Turns out I’m not so you have one more to come at you next week where I’ll tie up the final bits and pieces of how to actually go about building your model whilst today, I’ll concentrate on what is actually in your model and what it needs to output.
Core Components of Financial Modelling
OK, so we discussed at quite some length what a financial model is for and why CFOs use them, but what should the model itself contain?
As always, it depends.
There are some key overarching elements that should be in every model, however often there will be different levels and requirements for detail depending on who the intended audience is, whether internal or external, if it’s being used for the purpose of raising investment or securing a loan.
But as, ultimately a financial model is a financial model, there are a few things that have to go into it and a few things that aren’t ‘traditional’ parts of how you would present financial statements.
I would typically group the various components of a financial model as follows:
Inputs
Calculations
Outputs
Inputs
As the name suggests these are all the numbers that go into a model and from which the final model is built and outputs derived.
Firstly, it is good practice to have a sheet that lists out all the assumptions that you have made in written format so that people can follow your logic.
Then, probably the most important part of your entire model – the Inputs tab. This is where you will create the adjustable assumptions that will drive your model.
Why is this the most important part of the model?
Well because it’s what shows the model’s audience how you think about your business, how you drive leads, are you B2B or D2C, what drives revenue, how costs flow through and how they vary based on the level of activity, how does headcount change over time and so on.
So for example, if you are a B2B enterprise business and haven’t got a reasonable indication of your forward looking pipeline, it would be a bit of a red flag.
Calculations
As the name suggests, the Calculation tabs in a financial model are where the actual calculations and formulas are performed to power the financial statements and other key outputs.
These sheets serves as the back end of the model and are an essential part of understanding how you get from the inputs (static) to the outputs (dynamic).
The formulas contained in the Calculation sheets take into account various factors such as revenue drivers, cost structures, growth rates, and other key financial and non financial metrics from which the output statements are constructed.
It is essential to have these Calculation tabs separate to and driven by the data in the Input tab. By manipulating the Inputs CFOs and other users can analyse different scenarios and use sensitivity analysis to assess the potential impact on the company’s performance.
This function of scenario modelling, which is crucial for strategic decision-making, should not be underestimated. CFOs use these scenarios to explore different growth strategies, pricing models, cost structures, and investment scenarios which in turn helps in identifying the optimal path for the business and in making informed decisions to drive the business forward.
Furthermore, separating out the Calculations from both the Inputs as well as the Outputs provides better transparency and visibility to the model as well as allowing other users to audit the construction of formulas and how they flow from one statement to the next.
It is therefore important to ensure that the calculations sheet is well-structured, organised, and documented. Wherever possible, you should use clear labels and comments to explain the purpose of each formula and calculation. This ensures that the model is easy to understand, review, and update as the business evolves.
Outputs
Whilst, as I have mentioned, the Inputs are probably the most important component of your financial model, and the Calculations are imperative to be able to audit how the model was built the various Outputs are also critical to be able to analyse the overall shape, direction and impact of Inputs on the model.
The obvious Outputs are the financial statements which, as we’ve discussed in other Off Balance articles comprise of:
– Income Statement: The Income Statement captures revenue, costs, and profits so that you can gauge how the business is performing over time. This is always included in a financial model.
– Balance Sheet: A snapshot of assets, liabilities, and equity – the company’s financial position at a specific point in time. In many early stage businesses – especially software businesses – it is not essential to include the Balance Sheet as an output. Investors will rarely ask for it and it can be quite complicated to build out.
– Cash Flow Statement: This is probably where most investors will focus, as it chronicles the inflow and outflow of cash, highlighting operational, investing, and financing activities. More importantly, it shows how much cash the business requires to reach the next stated milestone (this may be a revenue target, a usage target or something else altogether – it will depend on what stage you are at and what vertical you are in) as well as how long that cash will last (runway). For example a SaaS business is likely tracking getting to a certain level of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) whilst a deep tech or tech bio business milestones will likely not be linked to revenues in the early years, but more towards R&D outcomes.
Essentially investors (and you) want to sense check whether it is going to be feasible to continue to raise capital to fund growth or if the business is so capital intensive that there is greater risk it won’t reach the milestone or worse, will require a lot more additional capital to get there.
The non obvious ones are normally then more meaningful ones – at least at early stage.
You want to be able to capture the key metrics (leading not lagging) and the non-financial indicators that represent how your venture is going to grow.
Some of them are quasi financial and relatively standard, things like monthly recurring revenue (MRR) or net revenue retention (NRR), churn / revenue churn, users / customers, lifetime value, customer acquisition costs and growth.
Others are not derived from the financials such as acquisition channels, funnel metrics, downloads (if a mobile app), market share (though rare at early stage), customer satisfaction (again rare in a financial model, but if a key metric, you may wish to show direction of travel) and various others that will depend on the business you are building, the vertical you are in and the business model you are pursuing.
I will always include a summary tab which shows numbers annually, the total cash need, when the business runs out of cash and wherever possible show several scenarios (which may include achieving lower or higher revenues, employing fewer or more employees or changing another variable that impacts the income or cash flow statement (investors at earlier stages and especially in software businesses are rarely going to worry about the balance sheet for forecasting purposes though this becomes important if your model is going to a bank or lender).
It is also good practice to create a series of graphs plotting key metrics (financial and non financial) as these will often be valuable for investment decks or even as visual explainers for internal team members.
On DCF and valuations.
I personally don’t believe that for most financial models being used to seek investment in the venture space, DCFs are particularly valuable.
Firstly, what is a DCF?
It stands for Discounted Cash Flow which we have talked about in the context of investment decisions in previous writings. In the context of valuations, it is the traditional method by which analysts would value an established (likely publicly listed) business.
They are able to do this because cash flows are typically stable by the time a business is listed on the stock market (by stable I don’t mean constant, but there is a higher degree of predictability based on previous growth, analysis of management’s strategic plans and more).
Essentially by summing the discounted values of all the cash flows into the future, you are able to derive a value for the business today.
But.
Obviously we’re not talking typically about stable businesses here. Startups are by their very nature unpredictable. Not only is there a lack of consistency in cash flows to date, but the very nature of how those cash flows are derived will likely change multiple times before approaching some level of consistency.
Then layer on the fact that finding a suitable weighted average cost of capital (risk rate) will be a moving target given these businesses will rarely have debt and given how illiquid the market for their shares is and you’re left with the overall impression that trying to do a DCF in a financial model of an early stage venture is probably more about showing off your understanding of how to calculate one (though peversely, also showing off that you don’t have an understanding of when it is sensible to use one).
So to assume that you can forecast out cash flows sensibly and then use an appropriate discount factor to work out a valuation is optimistic at best. There are just too many factors that you cannot control.
However, if you do want to provide a range of valuations based on the numbers you present, you may choose to look at recent transactions in your space, the sort of multiples on revenue those companies have been valued at – or even looking at public markets and using proxy figures to calculate a valuation for your business – for example, you’re building a social network and look at Facebook which has a market cap of x (valuation) and y numbers of users. You could therefore say that each user is worth x/y in value. Multiply this number (maybe discounting it down a bit because, let’s face it, you’re probably no Facebook yet) by the number of users you currently have and voila, your own back of the envelope valuation calculation.
Again, I typically don’t include valuations in my models as I feel it is somewhat hubristic. Investors will negotiate a valuation, by putting one in your model (which as I have previously discussed is going to be 99% inaccurate in any case) seems like you are anchoring on a position that is highly mutable and subject to discussion.
Next week we’ll wrap the whole financial modelling piece up with some thoughts on a process to actually build a model, the sort of models you might find yourself building (and to what end) as well as where software is heading from a modelling perspective.
That’s a wrap for this week as I try to get on top of my 2 weeks’ absense whilst also fighting the urge to just jump on a plane and head back out into the sun.
I hope you found Off Balance #17 useful. As always, I’d love to get your feedback and understand the sort of topics you would love to hear about.
Just hit reply to this mail or drop me a line at [email protected] and let me know ????
????And that’s a wrap for this edition of Off Balance – I’d appreciate your feedback so just reply to this email if you’ve got something you’d like to say.
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That’s it from me so until next time…
Stay liquid 🙂
Aarish